If you’re still contesting the pot while awaiting that river card, you should have a strong hand, or a draw to what you believe will be the best hand if you make it. What may have begun as a confrontation between many opponents before the flop probably will be reduced to two — or perhaps three of you — once all the board cards are exposed.
Realized versus Potential Value
Because there are no more cards to come once the river card has been dealt, any strategic considerations based what the next card might bring have all gone out the window. Before the river you could bet a hand comprised of a pair and four flush. Not only might your pair be the best hand at that point, your bet could force a better hand to fold — never mind that flush you’ll make if a third suited card appears on the turn or the river.
Your hand had value from many sources. Taken together, that pair, coupled with your hand’s potential for a flush as well as the possibilities of improving to two pair or trips, made it a valuable hand. And its worth was made up of realized value plus potential value.
Once the last card is dealt, potential value is a thing of the past. Your hand’s value has been fully realized. If that flush draw never materialized, you’re left with one pair, and it may not be enough to win the pot. More importantly, your strategic thinking has to change too.
Apart from a naked bluff, your decision to check or bet if no one has acted, or fold, call, raise or reraise if there has been action, can only be based on the realized value of your hand.
What Should I Do If I Make My Draw?
Many players automatically check a good flush from early position, hoping to trap their opponents for an additional bet. Others automatically bet whenever they make a flush. These are two very different strategies. Is either strategy better than the other?
Here’s part one of the general rule on checkraising. Do it when you believe you will have the best hand most of the time you are called. Just believing you have the best hand is not enough to justify a checkraise. Sometimes you’ll find yourself facing a reraise. To compensate for these occasions, checkraise when you believe you will hold the winning hand if you are called — unless, of course, you believe checkraising will cause your opponent to lay down a better hand.
Part two of the general rule on checkraising is obvious: You need to be fairly certain your opponent will bet if you check. It’s no fun to check a big hand only to have your opponents check behind you, especially when you know they would have called — if only you had bet.
If you are not certain you’ll hold the best hand if called, or you aren’t sure one of your opponents will bet if you check, do not checkraise. Unless you can answer “yes” to both of these questions, bet. Don’t checkraise.
Sometimes even aggressive opponents who have been betting the entire hand will slow down when a third suited card appears on board. Since they’ve been doing the betting and you’ve been calling, it’s natural for them to assume you’re on the come. When that third suited card appears or an apparent straight is on board, many players — even aggressive ones — apply the brakes.
If you’re going to checkraise in a situation where it appears you’re trying for a flush, you need to be certain that your opponent is aggressive enough to bet right into that flush or straight draw. It helps if you can delude your opponents into thinking you do not have a drawing hand. Here’s how you can do just that. Suppose you’re in early position with A-J of clubs. You’re raised. You call, and the flop comes Q-7-4 .
Suppose you bet. If your opponent holds A-A, K-K, Q-Q, or A-Q, you’ll probably be raised. When you check and call if a blank falls on the turn, your opponent may now assume you were either trying to steal the pot from early position, “testing” your kicker with a hand like Q-9 or Q-8, or were betting second pair — to find out where you stood.
Example:
Your hand: A-J
Your opponent’s hand: K-K
the board: Q-7-4
You hold the nut flush draw
Your opponent holds an overpair to the board.
He may no longer put you on a flush draw. If you make your flush on the river, you’ve set your opponent up for a checkraise. Believing you were checking a lesser hand on the turn or river, your opponent, especially if he is aggressive, will come out betting. Now he’s trapped. When you raise, he’ll realize you’ve probably got him beat, but most players won’t throw their hand away for one additional bet. They’ll make a crying call, but they’ll pay you off nevertheless.
Here’s another advantage. By betting a four-flush on the flop and checking the turn, you’ve enabled yourself to bet other marginal hands on the flop, and get a free card on the turn if the board is threatening. Because you baited the checkraising trap so successfully, you’ve created some deception in your game. That deception is your opportunity to extract additional money from your opponents, or see the turn for free, since they will not be certain about your hand.
This, of course, only works against opponents who are astute enough to put you on a hand, and then see whether your holdings confirm their supposition. When they’re wrong, you will have created some additional maneuvering room for yourself since those opponents will no longer be able to trust their judgment. Of course, when your opponents are absolute maniacs, compulsive callers, or just brain dead, don’t waste any energy trying to deceive them.
With a maniac, you don’t need to set up a checkraise. He’s going to bet most of the time, and you can snap him off whenever you’re holding a better hand. With a calling station, don’t checkraise. Just keep betting if you’ve got the best of it. You’ll have to show the best hand to win, but you’ll always get paid off.
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